Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2262 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2262 LAS 06:51 → BWI 14:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1004 LAS 12:26 → BWI 20:05 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2262 Southwest	LAS 06:51	BWI 14:26	5%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 575 Southwest	LAS 14:07	BWI 21:53	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 1004 Southwest	LAS 12:26	BWI 20:05	22%	5%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 14m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	6h 47m	98%	86%
United Details →	LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:44UA 2102	46m Chicago	ORD 06:30 → BWI 09:27UA 1269	6h 23m	81%	74%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:31 → MSP 18:42DL 2238	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918	6h 42m	84%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON