tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G4 1 Allegiant LAS 06:01 BZN 09:13 8% 4% 1.3% no record
WN 2387 Southwest LAS 12:31 BZN 15:42 15% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 1h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 4h 17m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 23m Denver DEN 11:55 → BZN 13:55UA 741 7h 25m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:15 → SLC 15:44DL 1659 1h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 4h 29m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45DL 2844 2h 55m Seattle SEA 11:40 → BZN 14:35DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 7h 25m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → LAS 05:59 → DFW 10:47AA 2932 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → BZN 15:16AA 947 8h 17m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315 1h 03m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 4h 56m 92% 81%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 06:02 → SEA 08:34AS 741 3h 14m Seattle SEA 11:48 → BZN 14:24AS 277 7h 22m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → LAS 07:15 → SFO 08:52UA 2356 3h 08m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → BZN 15:21UA 562 7h 06m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 10:44 → LAX 12:02UA 2316 48m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 4h 40m 70% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON