tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2235 United LAS 12:57 CLE 20:11 23% 11% 1.0% no record
WN 2267 Southwest LAS 13:22 CLE 20:28 31% 10% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:56 → IAH 06:01UA 2009 1h 19m Houston IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544 7h 18m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:44 → MSP 05:50DL 2834 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 07:11 → CLE 10:09DL 1083 6h 25m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978 7h 59m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:44UA 2102 1h 41m Chicago ORD 07:25 → CLE 09:54UA 1488 6h 50m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → LAX 07:14UA 2039 1h 18m Los Angeles LAX 08:32 → CLE 16:16UA 2315 7h 16m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619 6h 06m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608 3h 24m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 9h 30m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:15 → SLC 15:44DL 1659 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CLE 22:58DL 2855 6h 43m 95% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → LAS 11:41 → DEN 14:47F9 2350 52m Denver DEN 15:39 → CLE 20:49F9 4638 6h 08m 64% 48%
DeltaDetails → LAS 12:10 → JFK 20:39DL 795 51m New York JFK 21:30 → CLE 23:43DL 4946 · flown by Endeavor 8h 34m 73% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON