Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2957 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2957 LAS 07:00 → CLT 14:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2981 LAS 11:18 → CLT 18:50 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2957 American Flight history →	LAS 07:00	CLT 14:35	10%	3%	0.9%	92%
AA 8 American	LAS 07:59	CLT 15:28	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 2470 American Flight history →	LAS 13:14	CLT 20:50	22%	7%	0.8%	84%
AA 2981 American Flight history →	LAS 11:18	CLT 18:50	22%	6%	0.9%	93%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAS 05:59 → DFW 10:47AA 2932	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	6h 37m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	55m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	6h 12m	88%	74%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → CLT 20:11DL 2132	6h 30m	90%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON