tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1738 Southwest LAS 07:51 CMH 15:00 9% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 4750 Southwest LAS 13:31 CMH 20:40 26% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522 8h 15m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:44 → MSP 05:50DL 2834 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772 6h 18m 96% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:44UA 2102 1h 39m Chicago ORD 07:23 → CMH 09:54UA 451 6h 50m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470 2h 56m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 8h 03m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 14:21 → CMH 16:03DL 2892 7h 03m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 03m Denver DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28UA 480 5h 58m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786 8h 58m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 20:33 → CMH 22:15DL 1501 8h 34m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:30 → MSP 14:40DL 2261 55m Minneapolis MSP 15:35 → CMH 18:28DL 2113 5h 58m 56% 49%
AmericanDetails → LAS 11:42 → DFW 16:42AA 1494 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:29 → CMH 21:08AA 1348 6h 26m 67% 49%
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:56 → EWR 18:00UA 1784 55m Newark EWR 18:55 → CMH 20:57UA 3481 · flown by Republic 8h 01m 66% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON