Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Hebron on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G4 381 Allegiant	LAS 10:04	CVG 17:05	22%	8%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	7h 52m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	LAS 00:44 → MSP 05:50DL 2834	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954	6h 19m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273	6h 03m	98%	88%
United Details →	LAS 00:56 → IAH 06:01UA 2009	1h 29m Houston	IAH 07:30 → CVG 10:59UA 6312 · flown by Mesa	7h 03m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:30 → MSP 14:40DL 2261	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37DL 703	6h 07m	100%	87%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 08m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:27UA 1978	5h 57m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	7h 41m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119	9h 20m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON