Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 382 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 382 LAS 05:00 → DAL 09:45 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1326 LAS 15:18 → DAL 20:02 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 382 Southwest	LAS 05:00	DAL 09:45	2%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 670 Southwest	LAS 06:40	DAL 11:23	4%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 745 Southwest	LAS 07:51	DAL 12:35	7%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 2273 Southwest	LAS 09:02	DAL 13:49	12%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 3231 Southwest	LAS 10:17	DAL 15:01	17%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 1347 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:53	DAL 18:37	25%	6%	0.9%	89%worse than usual
WN 1312 Southwest	LAS 17:03	DAL 21:47	26%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 1326 Southwest	LAS 15:18	DAL 20:02	27%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON