tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4360 Southwest LAS 09:26 DCA 17:01 20% 5% 0.7% no record
AA 1525 American LAS 11:51 DCA 20:00 26% 9% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:56 → IAH 06:01UA 2009 1h 53m Houston IAH 07:54 → DCA 12:18UA 512 8h 22m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 7h 54m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:44 → MSP 05:50DL 2834 1h 46m Minneapolis MSP 07:36 → DCA 11:00DL 2958 7h 16m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:44UA 2102 2h 16m Chicago ORD 08:00 → DCA 11:06UA 1705 8h 02m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:02 → ORD 05:40AA 3077 3h 25m Chicago ORD 09:05 → DCA 12:17AA 523 9h 15m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 35m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 58m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 6h 29m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 3h 15m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 8h 50m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON