Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2277 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2277 LAS 05:16 → DEN 08:11 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2283 LAS 15:41 → DEN 18:38 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2277 Southwest	LAS 05:16	DEN 08:11	3%	1%	0.9%	no record
UA 596 United Flight history →	LAS 05:30	DEN 08:32	4%	2%	0.6%	98%
WN 756 Southwest	LAS 06:51	DEN 09:46	5%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 868 Southwest	LAS 08:07	DEN 11:02	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 1315 United Flight history →	LAS 09:37	DEN 12:41	11%	4%	0.7%	93%
UA 1006 United Flight history →	LAS 11:58	DEN 15:16	13%	7%	0.7%	91%
WN 2280 Southwest	LAS 10:32	DEN 13:28	13%	3%	1.0%	no record
F9 4968 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 08:15	DEN 11:19	15%	6%	1.0%	86%
F9 1766 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:34	DEN 12:40	19%	6%	1.0%	79%
UA 1323 United Flight history →	LAS 13:36	DEN 16:40	20%	8%	0.6%	77%
F9 2350 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:41	DEN 14:47	21%	7%	1.0%	88%
UA 484 United	LAS 15:16	DEN 18:28	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 2282 Southwest	LAS 14:35	DEN 17:31	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 2108 United Flight history →	LAS 16:25	DEN 19:30	26%	10%	0.7%	73%
WN 2281 Southwest	LAS 13:25	DEN 16:21	26%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 509 Southwest	LAS 17:36	DEN 20:33	27%	8%	0.7%	no record
F9 3540 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:53	DEN 18:00	32%	11%	0.8%	66%
WN 2283 Southwest	LAS 15:41	DEN 18:38	34%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON