Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2932 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2932 LAS 05:59 → DFW 10:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1380 LAS 16:55 → DFW 21:51 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2932 American Flight history →	LAS 05:59	DFW 10:47	5%	3%	1.4%	94%
AA 654 American Flight history →	LAS 06:54	DFW 11:41	7%	4%	1.4%	86%
AA 617 American Flight history →	LAS 07:13	DFW 12:06	8%	5%	1.1%	89%
AA 1908 American Flight history →	LAS 08:54	DFW 13:42	11%	6%	1.1%	87%
F9 3886 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 08:44	DFW 13:39	13%	6%	1.1%	92%
AA 2797 American Flight history →	LAS 09:44	DFW 14:31	16%	7%	1.1%	94%
AA 1584 American Flight history →	LAS 10:11	DFW 15:08	16%	7%	1.1%	87%
F9 1650 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:59	DFW 05:43	17%	7%	1.0%	77%
AA 1494 American Flight history →	LAS 11:42	DFW 16:42	20%	9%	1.1%	78%
AA 1482 American Flight history →	LAS 12:18	DFW 17:06	23%	9%	1.1%	78%
F9 1052 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:22	DFW 19:26	27%	10%	0.9%	75%
AA 777 American Flight history →	LAS 14:02	DFW 19:03	28%	11%	0.9%	73%
AA 2376 American Flight history →	LAS 15:23	DFW 20:24	30%	12%	0.9%	66%
AA 1380 American Flight history →	LAS 16:55	DFW 21:51	30%	12%	1.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON