tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1838 Southwest LAS 11:01 DSM 15:58 21% 4% 0.8% no record
G4 457 Allegiant LAS 14:36 DSM 19:38 29% 13% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704 8h 12m 100% 94%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 24m Denver DEN 09:56 → DSM 12:54UA 596 5h 24m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 8h 47m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:44UA 2102 3h 16m Chicago ORD 09:00 → DSM 10:22UA 466 8h 18m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:44 → MSP 05:50DL 2834 3h 10m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → DSM 10:14DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 7h 30m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:58 → DEN 15:16UA 1006 2h 24m Denver DEN 17:40 → DSM 20:30UA 549 6h 32m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → LAS 05:59 → DFW 10:47AA 2932 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:19 → DSM 15:24AA 1664 7h 25m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 1h 28m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → DSM 14:05DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor 5h 46m 96% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON