Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 864 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 864 LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1849 LAS 12:31 → DTW 19:27 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 864 Delta Flight history →	LAS 05:50	DTW 12:44	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 470 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:59	DTW 16:58	15%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 334 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:27	DTW 18:26	18%	4%	0.6%	87%
DL 778 Delta Flight history →	LAS 15:11	DTW 22:17	20%	5%	0.7%	77%
WN 1849 Southwest	LAS 12:31	DTW 19:27	29%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON