Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1975 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1975 LAS 07:00 → EWR 15:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1731 LAS 12:35 → EWR 20:40 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1975 United Flight history →	LAS 07:00	EWR 15:00	11%	4%	1.0%	96%
UA 406 United Flight history →	LAS 00:08	EWR 07:47	12%	3%	1.2%	85%
UA 1386 United Flight history →	LAS 16:10	EWR 00:19	20%	11%	1.0%	86%
UA 1784 United Flight history →	LAS 09:56	EWR 18:00	25%	10%	0.9%	87%worse than usual
UA 611 United	LAS 15:01	EWR 23:10	27%	14%	0.9%	no record
UA 1933 United Flight history →	LAS 14:01	EWR 22:15	35%	14%	0.8%	78%worse than usual
UA 1731 United Flight history →	LAS 12:35	EWR 20:40	36%	14%	1.0%	74%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:44 → MSP 05:50DL 2834	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864	7h 05m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397	6h 56m	91%	82%
American Details →	LAS 00:02 → ORD 05:40AA 3077	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 06:41 → EWR 09:54AA 699	6h 52m	89%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON