Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3172 at 08:39, 31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3172 LAS 08:39 → HNL 11:58 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 807 LAS 10:05 → HNL 13:29 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Weather 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3172 Southwest	LAS 08:39	HNL 11:58	31%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 817 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 01:52	HNL 05:07	33%	5%	1.0%	87%worse than usual
WN 185 Southwest	LAS 10:09	HNL 13:28	37%	10%	0.8%	no record
AS 807 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 10:05	HNL 13:29	41%	16%	0.9%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 06:19 → LAX 07:30DL 553	1h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → HNL 11:18DL 480	7h 59m	94%	72%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → LAX 07:14UA 2039	1h 51m Los Angeles	LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158	8h 53m	99%	69%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643	1h 45m San Francisco	SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175	8h 43m	99%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON