Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 197 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 197 LAS 05:06 → HOU 10:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1795 LAS 17:42 → HOU 22:50 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 197 Southwest	LAS 05:06	HOU 10:10	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2298 Southwest	LAS 07:46	HOU 12:53	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2302 Southwest	LAS 00:56	HOU 06:01	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 334 Southwest	LAS 11:30	HOU 16:35	25%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 3524 Southwest	LAS 14:41	HOU 19:46	26%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 1795 Southwest	LAS 17:42	HOU 22:50	26%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON