Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 284 at 00:06 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 284 LAS 00:06 → IAD 07:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 2630 LAS 13:20 → IAD 20:59 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 284 United Flight history →	LAS 00:06	IAD 07:34	7%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1140 United Flight history →	LAS 08:48	IAD 16:24	12%	4%	0.7%	87%
UA 2630 United	LAS 13:20	IAD 20:59	19%	7%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315	1h 12m Denver	DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347	6h 45m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	54m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	6h 41m	87%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON