Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2608 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2608 LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 1966 LAS 11:42 → IAH 16:57 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2608 United Flight history →	LAS 06:00	IAH 11:11	4%	2%	0.9%	95%
UA 1994 United	LAS 07:42	IAH 12:49	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2009 United Flight history →	LAS 00:56	IAH 06:01	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1711 United Flight history →	LAS 10:25	IAH 15:40	12%	4%	0.8%	91%
F9 4132 Frontier	LAS 00:51	IAH 06:08	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 1490 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:32	IAH 14:48	18%	6%	1.2%	84%
UA 2741 United Flight history →	LAS 15:40	IAH 20:55	19%	8%	0.7%	74%
UA 1627 United	LAS 12:10	IAH 17:20	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 1864 United	LAS 16:46	IAH 21:56	21%	9%	0.7%	no record
F9 1966 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:42	IAH 16:57	24%	8%	1.1%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON