tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: G4 1629 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G4 1629 Allegiant LAS 06:16 ICT 10:53 8% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 2874 Southwest LAS 14:26 ICT 19:00 26% 6% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 09:15 → ICT 10:26DL 1637 7h 53m 99% 93%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:44UA 2102 3h 08m Chicago ORD 08:52 → ICT 11:12UA 4809 · flown by SkyWest 9h 08m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 23m Denver DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 2h 00m Minneapolis MSP 13:22 → ICT 15:15DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 6h 56m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 16:31 → ICT 17:47DL 2128 9h 47m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315 1h 18m Denver DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 95% 86%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:44 → DFW 14:31AA 2797 2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:07 → ICT 18:30AA 3691 · flown by Envoy 6h 46m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:58 → DEN 15:16UA 1006 2h 40m Denver DEN 17:56 → ICT 20:38UA 1788 6h 40m 98% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON