Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 510 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 510 LAS 07:05 → JFK 15:17 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 248 LAS 15:52 → JFK 23:49 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 510 Delta Flight history →	LAS 07:05	JFK 15:17	7%	2%	1.0%	96%
B6 2348 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 07:28	JFK 15:30	12%	4%	1.1%	81%
DL 333 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:35	JFK 17:59	18%	5%	1.0%	85%
AA 1890 American	LAS 08:45	JFK 16:39	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 1102 Delta	LAS 15:40	JFK 23:25	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
DL 795 Delta Flight history →	LAS 12:10	JFK 20:39	23%	6%	1.0%	78%
B6 348 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 14:20	JFK 22:16	25%	11%	1.0%	73%
AA 3081 American	LAS 12:45	JFK 20:40	26%	9%	1.0%	no record
B6 1448 JetBlue	LAS 11:12	JFK 19:07	27%	8%	1.2%	no record
B6 248 JetBlue	LAS 15:52	JFK 23:49	29%	11%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:44 → MSP 05:50DL 2834	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	6h 55m	93%	87%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 17:59 → JFK 19:39DL 1316	6h 40m	86%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON