tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4310 Southwest LAS 09:26 KOA 12:44 15% 3% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → LAX 07:14UA 2039 1h 46m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → KOA 11:42UA 2373 8h 42m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 43m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 07m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 12:46 → LAX 13:57DL 1696 2h 47m Los Angeles LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311 9h 31m 97% 82%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:52 → HNL 05:07AS 817 2h 53m Honolulu HNL 08:00 → KOA 08:46AS 1038 9h 54m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 10h 21m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 10:28 → SEA 13:14AS 629 2h 45m Seattle SEA 15:59 → KOA 19:05AS 238 11h 37m 94% 74%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 06:02 → SEA 08:33AS 741 1h 25m Seattle SEA 09:58 → KOA 13:02AS 518 10h 00m 92% 73%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 07:05 → OGG 10:12AS 931 2h 48m Kahului OGG 13:00 → KOA 13:36AS 1030 9h 31m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:52 → HNL 05:07AS 817 53m Honolulu HNL 06:00 → KOA 06:46AS 1018 7h 54m 51% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON