Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2312 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2312 LAS 05:41 → LAX 06:56 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 936 LAS 15:33 → LAX 16:48 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2312 Southwest	LAS 05:41	LAX 06:56	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
UA 2039 United Flight history →	LAS 06:00	LAX 07:14	6%	2%	0.8%	97%
F9 3291 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:21	LAX 07:44	10%	3%	1.1%	82%
DL 553 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:52	LAX 08:00	13%	2%	0.8%	94%
AA 2690 American Flight history →	LAS 07:09	LAX 08:28	16%	4%	0.9%	85%
AA 6425 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 10:04	LAX 11:24	18%	7%	1.1%	93%worse than usual
UA 2316 United Flight history →	LAS 10:44	LAX 12:02	18%	7%	0.7%	90%
UA 2808 United	LAS 08:30	LAX 09:52	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2253 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:48	LAX 11:00	19%	5%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
UA 2184 United Flight history →	LAS 14:15	LAX 15:35	20%	9%	0.6%	83%
WN 2313 Southwest	LAS 10:21	LAX 11:36	21%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 1696 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:08	LAX 14:24	22%	7%	0.6%	75%
F9 2263 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 13:43	LAX 15:05	23%	7%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
OO 6511 SkyWest	LAS 17:36	LAX 18:55	25%	12%	0.9%	no record
AA 1180 American	LAS 14:25	LAX 15:44	25%	10%	0.8%	no record
DL 1703 Delta	LAS 17:34	LAX 18:46	26%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 1803 United	LAS 16:21	LAX 17:39	26%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 2314 Southwest	LAS 13:13	LAX 14:28	32%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 936 Southwest	LAS 15:33	LAX 16:48	32%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON