tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via SFO, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4463 Southwest LAS 09:17 LIH 12:58 19% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643 1h 17m San Francisco SFO 08:52 → LIH 11:52UA 1111 8h 52m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → LAX 07:14UA 2039 1h 31m Los Angeles LAX 08:45 → LIH 11:44UA 1295 8h 44m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574 3h 43m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684 11h 12m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 28m Denver DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307 13h 07m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:48 → LAX 10:59DL 2253 3h 46m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 10h 53m 98% 77%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:52 → HNL 05:07AS 817 3h 26m Honolulu HNL 08:33 → LIH 09:14AS 1033 10h 22m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:09 → SEA 14:00DL 2922 1h 50m Seattle SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345 10h 49m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 2h 49m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697 10h 51m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAS 13:24 → SEA 15:56AS 676 1h 00m Seattle SEA 16:56 → LIH 20:23AS 237 9h 59m 69% 51%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:52 → HNL 05:07AS 817 53m Honolulu HNL 06:00 → LIH 06:40AS 1003 7h 48m 51% 42%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 08:00 → SEA 10:32AS 701 56m Seattle SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258 9h 40m 56% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON