Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2325 at 08:41, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2325 Southwest	LAS 08:41	LIT 13:58	9%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:31 → LIT 11:03DL 3040	8h 30m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027	7h 12m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → LIT 21:34DL 2701	8h 53m	98%	85%
United Details →	LAS 00:56 → IAH 06:01UA 2009	3h 39m Houston	IAH 09:40 → LIT 11:13UA 4371 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 17m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → LIT 18:31DL 2061	9h 26m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 08:26 → ATL 15:25DL 927	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → LIT 17:55DL 3025	7h 29m	97%	83%
American Details →	LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617	3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:39 → LIT 16:59AA 4309 · flown by Envoy	7h 46m	98%	83%
United Details →	LAS 10:25 → IAH 15:40UA 1711	2h 40m Houston	IAH 18:20 → LIT 20:01UA 6150 · flown by Mesa	7h 36m	96%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON