Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4331 at 13:06, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4331 Southwest	LAS 13:06	MAF 17:22	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAS 00:56 → IAH 06:01UA 2009	1h 19m Houston	IAH 07:20 → MAF 08:52UA 6263 · flown by Mesa	5h 56m	100%	89%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 33m Denver	DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest	5h 29m	99%	84%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608	3h 24m Houston	IAH 14:35 → MAF 16:15UA 6322 · flown by Mesa	8h 15m	100%	83%
American Details →	LAS 09:44 → DFW 14:31AA 2797	3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:29 → MAF 19:49AA 4279 · flown by Envoy	8h 05m	100%	82%
American Details →	LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617	3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:36 → MAF 16:53AA 3653 · flown by Envoy	7h 40m	98%	82%
United Details →	LAS 10:25 → IAH 15:40UA 1711	55m Houston	IAH 16:35 → MAF 18:15UA 6233 · flown by Mesa	5h 50m	86%	73%
United Details →	LAS 15:40 → IAH 20:55UA 2741	1h 09m Houston	IAH 22:04 → MAF 23:44UA 6276 · flown by Mesa	6h 04m	84%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON