Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2326 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 2326 LAS 06:36 → MCI 11:29 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4506 LAS 16:47 → MCI 21:49 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2326 Southwest	LAS 06:36	MCI 11:29	4%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 2323 Southwest	LAS 07:46	MCI 12:39	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2328 Southwest	LAS 14:14	MCI 19:07	25%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 2166 Southwest	LAS 15:39	MCI 20:35	27%	8%	0.6%	no record
F9 4506 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:47	MCI 21:49	38%	14%	1.1%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON