Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2331 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2331 LAS 05:16 → MCO 12:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2832 LAS 14:55 → MCO 22:36 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2331 Southwest	LAS 05:16	MCO 12:55	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1797 Southwest	LAS 10:31	MCO 18:05	25%	6%	1.6%	no record
WN 2333 Southwest	LAS 16:21	MCO 00:00	26%	8%	0.7%	no record
B6 2832 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 14:55	MCO 22:36	32%	10%	0.8%	86%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213	6h 23m	93%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	55m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150	6h 35m	88%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON