Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1487 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1487 LAS 06:31 → MDW 12:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2840 LAS 16:24 → MDW 22:02 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1487 Southwest	LAS 06:31	MDW 12:04	5%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 2336 Southwest	LAS 08:16	MDW 13:50	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2338 Southwest	LAS 00:11	MDW 05:41	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 5001 Southwest	LAS 13:29	MDW 19:06	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 759 Southwest	LAS 12:16	MDW 17:53	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2840 Southwest	LAS 16:24	MDW 22:02	27%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON