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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2339 at 14:21, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2339 Southwest LAS 14:21 MEM 19:44 31% 7% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:44 → MSP 05:49DL 2834 3h 21m Minneapolis MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 8h 44m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:44UA 2102 3h 16m Chicago ORD 09:00 → MEM 11:05UA 5593 · flown by SkyWest 9h 01m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27DL 2071 6h 54m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 20m Denver DEN 10:52 → MEM 14:18UA 2789 6h 48m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:02 → ORD 05:40AA 3077 2h 31m Chicago ORD 08:11 → MEM 09:54AA 3959 · flown by Envoy 7h 52m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470 3h 07m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230 9h 02m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → LAS 05:59 → DFW 10:47AA 2932 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:53 → MEM 14:35AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 6h 36m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:06DL 1681 9h 06m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:44 → DFW 14:31AA 2797 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:18 → MEM 17:02AA 2969 5h 18m 68% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON