tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3318 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3318 LAS 05:58 → MIA 14:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 803 LAS 11:39 → MIA 19:45 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 3318 American Flight history → LAS 05:58 MIA 14:03 11% 3% 1.1% 81%
AA 1173 American LAS 13:06 MIA 21:12 33% 9% 0.9% no record
AA 803 American LAS 11:39 MIA 19:45 34% 8% 1.1% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 7h 24m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:56 → IAH 06:01UA 2009 1h 54m Houston IAH 07:55 → MIA 11:33UA 2753 7h 37m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:32 → MIA 15:36UA 1418 7h 06m 96% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON