Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1997 at 08:21 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1997 Southwest	LAS 08:21	MKE 13:53	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 4795 Southwest	LAS 13:56	MKE 19:30	24%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAS 00:56 → IAH 06:01UA 2009	1h 19m Houston	IAH 07:20 → MKE 10:05UA 6149 · flown by Mesa	7h 09m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151	9h 20m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282	2h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006	6h 50m	98%	88%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 25m Denver	DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:24UA 1836	5h 54m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:05 → MKE 15:04DL 2152	7h 04m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206	8h 35m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 19:48 → MKE 20:54DL 2388	8h 13m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864	3h 06m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → MKE 16:02DL 1343	8h 12m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON