Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1282 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1282 LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4746 LAS 13:57 → MSP 19:15 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1282 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:19	MSP 11:22	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2834 Delta Flight history →	LAS 00:44	MSP 05:50	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2261 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:30	MSP 14:40	11%	3%	0.7%	97%
DL 2262 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:55	MSP 17:06	15%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 2238 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:31	MSP 18:42	17%	5%	0.6%	79%
DL 1542 Delta Flight history →	LAS 17:20	MSP 22:31	18%	7%	0.6%	84%
F9 4746 Frontier	LAS 13:57	MSP 19:15	25%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON