Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4041 at 07:56 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4041 LAS 07:56 → MSY 13:22 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1708 LAS 14:39 → MSY 20:23 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4041 Southwest	LAS 07:56	MSY 13:22	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2845 Southwest	LAS 12:02	MSY 17:29	26%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 1708 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:39	MSY 20:23	30%	12%	1.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON