Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2346 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2346 LAS 05:06 → OAK 06:45 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3837 LAS 16:19 → OAK 18:07 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2346 Southwest	LAS 05:06	OAK 06:45	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2347 Southwest	LAS 07:26	OAK 09:04	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3968 Southwest	LAS 09:58	OAK 11:36	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2348 Southwest	LAS 11:03	OAK 12:42	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
F9 2045 Frontier	LAS 07:48	OAK 09:35	16%	7%	2.4%	no record
WN 2123 Southwest	LAS 13:25	OAK 15:04	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2268 Southwest	LAS 15:19	OAK 16:57	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 3837 Frontier	LAS 16:19	OAK 18:07	29%	13%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON