tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:19, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 931 Alaska Flight history → LAS 07:05 OGG 10:12 20% 4% 0.7% 81%
WN 2354 Southwest LAS 09:24 OGG 12:40 20% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:52 → HNL 05:07AS 817 2h 55m Honolulu HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046 9h 51m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 10h 47m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → LAX 07:14UA 2039 2h 12m Los Angeles LAX 09:26 → OGG 12:11UA 417 9h 11m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 3h 03m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 10h 47m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 28m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 12h 35m 100% 80%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 11:00 → PDX 13:20AS 1467 1h 24m Portland PDX 14:44 → OGG 17:25AS 353 9h 25m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 3h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 11h 08m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573 9h 34m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574 53m San Francisco SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623 8h 06m 63% 49%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:52 → HNL 05:07AS 817 53m Honolulu HNL 06:00 → OGG 06:40AS 1016 7h 48m 51% 45%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 10:05 → HNL 13:29AS 807 1h 06m Honolulu HNL 14:35 → OGG 15:25AS 1136 8h 20m 66% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON