Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2358 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2358 Southwest	LAS 07:51	OMA 12:36	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2270 Southwest	LAS 12:36	OMA 17:24	22%	6%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674	1h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → OMA 12:56DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest	4h 56m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	LAS 00:44 → MSP 05:50DL 2834	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	7h 28m	99%	92%
United Details →	LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:44UA 2102	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → OMA 10:27UA 1778	8h 23m	99%	87%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 44m Denver	DEN 10:16 → OMA 13:04UA 1633	5h 34m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470	2h 47m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → OMA 20:53DL 3715 · flown by SkyWest	8h 54m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:30 → MSP 14:40DL 2261	3h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 18:25 → OMA 19:47DL 4024 · flown by SkyWest	8h 17m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864	3h 16m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest	9h 20m	99%	86%
American Details →	LAS 00:02 → ORD 05:40AA 3077	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 08:06 → OMA 09:39AA 4042 · flown by Envoy	7h 37m	97%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON