Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: F9 1357 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–25%.

Safest bet that day F9 1357 LAS 06:03 → ONT 07:22 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 2362 LAS 12:57 → ONT 14:09 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1357 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:03	ONT 07:22	9%	4%	1.6%	82%
WN 276 Southwest	LAS 09:17	ONT 10:29	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
F9 1283 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 10:01	ONT 11:21	16%	8%	1.1%	86%
F9 1923 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:36	ONT 16:56	23%	11%	1.0%	79%
WN 2554 Southwest	LAS 14:37	ONT 15:50	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 2362 Southwest	LAS 12:57	ONT 14:09	25%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON