Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1057 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1057 LAS 06:00 → ORD 11:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 706 LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1057 United	LAS 06:00	ORD 11:45	8%	2%	1.3%	no record
UA 664 United Flight history →	LAS 07:00	ORD 12:48	10%	4%	0.9%	89%
UA 2102 United Flight history →	LAS 00:04	ORD 05:34	10%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 3077 American Flight history →	LAS 00:02	ORD 05:40	12%	4%	1.6%	85%
AA 2258 American Flight history →	LAS 07:20	ORD 13:16	14%	4%	1.9%	89%
UA 1672 United Flight history →	LAS 09:00	ORD 14:48	17%	6%	0.9%	80%
AA 3080 American	LAS 09:43	ORD 15:44	18%	7%	1.6%	no record
UA 1583 United Flight history →	LAS 10:25	ORD 16:21	21%	6%	0.8%	83%
F9 2146 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:00	ORD 05:47	24%	8%	2.1%	70%
UA 2320 United Flight history →	LAS 16:15	ORD 22:13	26%	9%	0.9%	78%
AA 2366 American	LAS 16:01	ORD 22:01	27%	10%	1.5%	no record
UA 314 United Flight history →	LAS 12:38	ORD 18:24	29%	10%	0.8%	69%
AA 1497 American	LAS 12:56	ORD 18:57	31%	10%	1.6%	no record
UA 706 United Flight history →	LAS 14:25	ORD 20:23	33%	12%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON