Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2208 LAS 09:11 → PDX 11:38 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 756 LAS 14:08 → PDX 16:29 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2208 Southwest	LAS 09:11	PDX 11:38	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 596 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 08:01	PDX 10:21	12%	3%	0.8%	91%
AS 1537 Alaska	LAS 07:01	PDX 09:22	12%	2%	0.8%	no record
AS 1467 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 11:00	PDX 13:20	16%	3%	0.8%	90%
F9 1103 Frontier	LAS 09:07	PDX 11:41	17%	7%	1.9%	no record
AS 756 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 14:08	PDX 16:29	19%	5%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON