Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 534 at 06:37 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 534 LAS 06:37 → PHL 14:52 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1881 LAS 11:08 → PHL 19:07 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 534 American	LAS 06:37	PHL 14:52	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 779 American Flight history →	LAS 08:46	PHL 16:44	18%	5%	0.8%	81%
AA 1881 American	LAS 11:08	PHL 19:07	26%	7%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:44 → MSP 05:50DL 2834	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688	7h 00m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	7h 24m	97%	89%
United Details →	LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:44UA 2102	1h 39m Chicago	ORD 07:23 → PHL 10:30UA 2856	7h 26m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON