Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2370 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2370 LAS 05:46 → PHX 07:03 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1541 LAS 16:44 → PHX 18:06 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2370 Southwest	LAS 05:46	PHX 07:03	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 2371 Southwest	LAS 07:11	PHX 08:29	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 451 Southwest	LAS 08:50	PHX 10:07	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
AA 1808 American Flight history →	LAS 06:45	PHX 08:00	8%	4%	0.9%	91%
AA 1956 American	LAS 09:18	PHX 10:40	13%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 4048 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 10:04	PHX 11:27	15%	7%	1.1%	88%
WN 1400 Southwest	LAS 11:03	PHX 12:20	19%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 2109 American Flight history →	LAS 12:10	PHX 13:33	21%	9%	0.7%	79%
WN 864 Southwest	LAS 12:28	PHX 13:46	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2446 American	LAS 13:18	PHX 14:41	22%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 188 Southwest	LAS 14:40	PHX 15:58	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
F9 1020 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:42	PHX 16:09	24%	12%	0.9%	86%
WN 1589 Southwest	LAS 17:20	PHX 18:38	28%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 1541 American Flight history →	LAS 16:44	PHX 18:06	28%	13%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON