tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:31, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2004 Southwest LAS 07:46 PIT 15:07 9% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 869 Southwest LAS 17:41 PIT 00:56 22% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 9h 19m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:44 → MSP 05:50DL 2834 1h 39m Minneapolis MSP 07:29 → PIT 10:33DL 845 6h 49m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 7h 30m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00DL 2583 9h 19m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:02 → ORD 05:40AA 3077 2h 40m Chicago ORD 08:20 → PIT 11:07AA 4478 · flown by Republic 8h 05m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:44UA 2102 1h 31m Chicago ORD 07:15 → PIT 09:58UA 1285 6h 54m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 6h 50m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 33m Denver DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308 6h 46m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:18 → DFW 17:06AA 1482 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:55 → PIT 21:48AA 680 6h 30m 63% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON