tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 428 at 10:31, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 428 Southwest LAS 10:31 PSP 11:39 19% 5% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 5h 41m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698 3h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → PSP 16:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 6h 33m 98% 92%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643 54m San Francisco SFO 08:29 → PSP 10:09UA 717 4h 09m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 41m Denver DEN 11:13 → PSP 12:31UA 687 7h 01m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 2h 38m Phoenix PHX 10:38 → PSP 11:58AA 1884 5h 13m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → LAS 07:15 → SFO 08:52UA 2356 3h 48m San Francisco SFO 12:40 → PSP 14:20UA 342 7h 05m 100% 78%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 06:02 → SEA 08:34AS 741 1h 31m Seattle SEA 10:05 → PSP 12:40AS 1494 6h 38m 95% 69%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:18 → DFW 17:06AA 1482 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:35 → PSP 20:36AA 2709 8h 18m 97% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON