tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 32% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4792 Southwest LAS 12:38 RDU 20:07 27% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → RDU 11:35DL 2052 8h 02m 100% 93%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:56 → IAH 06:01UA 2009 2h 14m Houston IAH 08:15 → RDU 12:02UA 6148 · flown by Mesa 8h 06m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:44 → MSP 05:50DL 2834 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 07:00 → RDU 10:31DL 2783 6h 47m 95% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:02 → ORD 05:40AA 3077 2h 38m Chicago ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic 8h 36m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 7h 20m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 17m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 6h 46m 98% 87%
FrontierDetails → LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:43F9 1650 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:35 → RDU 12:36F9 3330 8h 37m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 2h 58m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699 8h 32m 98% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 07:09 → LAX 08:28AA 2690 47m Los Angeles LAX 09:15 → RDU 17:27AA 1754 7h 18m 73% 55%
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:56 → EWR 18:00UA 1784 57m Newark EWR 18:57 → RDU 20:42UA 2359 7h 46m 70% 38%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 07:59 → SAN 09:15AS 2253 · flown by Horizon 54m San Diego SAN 10:09 → RDU 17:54AS 430 6h 55m 32% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON