Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4939 at 06:37 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4939 LAS 06:37 → RNO 08:06 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4241 LAS 16:46 → RNO 18:22 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4939 Southwest	LAS 06:37	RNO 08:06	2%	1%	2.2%	no record
WN 635 Southwest	LAS 07:52	RNO 09:21	4%	1%	1.7%	no record
WN 2026 Southwest	LAS 09:27	RNO 10:55	8%	2%	1.7%	no record
F9 4247 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:35	RNO 08:11	9%	3%	2.8%	75%
WN 579 Southwest	LAS 10:52	RNO 12:20	11%	3%	1.4%	no record
WN 2385 Southwest	LAS 13:39	RNO 15:07	21%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 2386 Southwest	LAS 15:39	RNO 17:07	21%	6%	1.0%	no record
F9 4241 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:46	RNO 18:22	25%	11%	2.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON