Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2044 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2044 LAS 06:28 → SAN 07:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2394 LAS 13:51 → SAN 15:08 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2044 Southwest	LAS 06:28	SAN 07:45	9%	2%	1.9%	no record
WN 1403 Southwest	LAS 07:26	SAN 08:43	14%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 8842 Delta	LAS 07:47	SAN 08:59	21%	4%	1.2%	no record
WN 1762 Southwest	LAS 09:31	SAN 10:48	23%	6%	1.1%	no record
OO 3210 SkyWest	LAS 10:24	SAN 11:45	30%	12%	1.1%	no record
AS 3011 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 17:32	SAN 18:54	32%	13%	1.1%	66%
WN 3168 Southwest	LAS 11:16	SAN 12:33	34%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 1483 Southwest	LAS 12:21	SAN 13:38	36%	10%	1.0%	no record
WN 2399 Southwest	LAS 15:16	SAN 16:33	36%	12%	1.0%	no record
DL 3741 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 12:57	SAN 14:13	36%	11%	1.0%	79%worse than usual
WN 374 Southwest	LAS 16:01	SAN 17:19	37%	12%	1.0%	no record
WN 2394 Southwest	LAS 13:51	SAN 15:08	38%	11%	0.9%	no record
AS 2252 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 06:50	SAN 08:04	24%	4%	3.8%	76%
AS 2416 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 11:11	SAN 12:29	35%	4%	4.7%	65%
AS 2253 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 07:59	SAN 09:15	56%	8%	2.0%	44%
AS 2282 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 14:38	SAN 15:57	68%	30%	2.2%	32%
AS 2251 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 18:19	SAN 19:36	76%	33%	9.8%	24%
AS 2219 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 19:21	SAN 20:39	96%	59%	10.0%	4%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON