Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2406 at 12:36, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2406 Southwest	LAS 12:36	SDF 19:20	29%	7%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	8h 18m	100%	91%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 13m Denver	DEN 09:45 → SDF 14:28UA 1479	5h 58m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470	2h 47m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	8h 13m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282	1h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 12:51 → SDF 15:49DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	6h 30m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195	6h 42m	96%	85%
United Details →	LAS 00:56 → IAH 06:01UA 2009	2h 29m Houston	IAH 08:30 → SDF 11:54UA 3990 · flown by Mesa	7h 58m	100%	85%
American Details →	LAS 05:59 → DFW 10:47AA 2932	3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:02 → SDF 17:16AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	8h 17m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 20:38 → SDF 22:04DL 2842	8h 23m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON