Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2844 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 2844 LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 749 LAS 16:24 → SEA 18:57 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2844 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:10	SEA 08:45	7%	2%	0.8%	96%
DL 2922 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:09	SEA 14:00	13%	4%	0.7%	92%
AS 741 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 06:02	SEA 08:34	16%	3%	1.2%	87%
DL 2905 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:31	SEA 16:16	16%	5%	0.6%	89%
DL 2880 Delta Flight history →	LAS 14:40	SEA 17:21	18%	6%	0.6%	84%
F9 2407 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:45	SEA 10:39	20%	6%	1.1%	80%
AS 629 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 10:28	SEA 13:14	21%	5%	0.9%	89%worse than usual
WN 1971 Southwest	LAS 09:06	SEA 11:45	21%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 785 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 11:30	SEA 14:14	24%	6%	0.9%	85%
AS 701 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 08:00	SEA 10:33	26%	5%	0.9%	96%worse than usual
AS 676 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 12:16	SEA 15:00	29%	7%	0.8%	77%
AS 749 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 16:24	SEA 18:57	31%	8%	0.9%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON