Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 643 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 643 LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 1849 LAS 08:57 → SFO 10:47 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 643 United Flight history →	LAS 06:00	SFO 07:35	3%	1%	0.9%	98%
F9 3019 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:00	SFO 08:48	19%	8%	1.3%	76%
UA 2356 United Flight history →	LAS 07:15	SFO 08:52	20%	7%	0.7%	63%
UA 1160 United	LAS 17:01	SFO 18:45	24%	14%	0.6%	no record
WN 3778 Southwest	LAS 08:26	SFO 10:06	26%	11%	0.8%	no record
UA 1125 United	LAS 09:47	SFO 11:30	27%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 574 United Flight history →	LAS 11:30	SFO 13:12	27%	12%	0.7%	69%
UA 2047 United Flight history →	LAS 15:17	SFO 17:01	28%	13%	0.7%	71%
WN 4616 Southwest	LAS 11:56	SFO 13:36	29%	11%	0.8%	no record
F9 4401 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:14	SFO 13:03	30%	15%	1.3%	52%
UA 1799 United Flight history →	LAS 13:34	SFO 15:16	30%	13%	0.6%	57%
WN 2411 Southwest	LAS 15:56	SFO 17:36	31%	15%	0.7%	no record
AS 570 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 12:21	SFO 13:54	33%	12%	0.9%	58%
F9 4157 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:13	SFO 17:02	33%	16%	1.2%	69%
AS 634 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 16:12	SFO 17:45	34%	14%	0.9%	58%
F9 1849 Frontier	LAS 08:57	SFO 10:47	35%	15%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON