Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via DFW, leaving 05:59, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Springfield on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Springfield on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Springfield is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAS 05:59 → DFW 10:47AA 2932	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:26 → SGF 13:53AA 3494 · flown by Envoy	5h 54m	98%	89%
American Details →	LAS 09:44 → DFW 14:31AA 2797	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:47 → SGF 18:14AA 4311 · flown by Envoy	6h 30m	100%	86%
American Details →	LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617	2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:08 → SGF 15:35AA 3556 · flown by Envoy	6h 22m	97%	86%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 22m Denver	DEN 09:54 → SGF 12:52UA 5481 · flown by SkyWest	5h 22m	99%	86%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608	1h 14m Houston	IAH 12:25 → SGF 14:15UA 4569 · flown by GoJet	6h 15m	98%	84%
American Details →	LAS 10:11 → DFW 15:08AA 1584	3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:01 → SGF 20:31AA 3671 · flown by Envoy	8h 20m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → SGF 10:52DL 4707 · flown by Endeavor	8h 19m	100%	84%
United Details →	LAS 11:58 → DEN 15:16UA 1006	2h 22m Denver	DEN 17:38 → SGF 20:43UA 5886 · flown by SkyWest	6h 45m	96%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → SGF 23:27UA 4451 · flown by GoJet	7h 02m	74%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON