Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2413 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 2413 LAS 05:41 → SJC 07:20 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2614 LAS 16:14 → SJC 17:53 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2413 Southwest	LAS 05:41	SJC 07:20	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2279 Southwest	LAS 07:11	SJC 08:50	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 2415 Southwest	LAS 09:57	SJC 11:36	8%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 2414 Southwest	LAS 10:57	SJC 12:36	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 2189 Southwest	LAS 13:59	SJC 15:38	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
F9 4103 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:39	SJC 13:17	18%	6%	1.0%	78%
WN 2416 Southwest	LAS 17:46	SJC 19:26	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2614 Southwest	LAS 16:14	SJC 17:53	20%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON